From time to time we like to take a moment to bring you some educational sports betting tips so that you can continue to learn the best tricks to enjoy this delightful practice, but the truth is, after all this time, we’re running out of ideas at times. I don’t know about you, but around here in the office we boast of having generated a fantastic stream of well-educated bettors (so you’d better keep your eyes peeled, there’s a quiz coming up). So, for a change, we’re going to talk about a betting strategy that is little known to the average punter: the Fibonacci system.
Okay, before I go on, let me make one thing clear: in high school, I was a maths nerd. I chose letters, obviously, but since I work in sports betting, I have had to learn some basic notions. And interestingly, I happen to remember the Fibonacci mathematical sequence from my student days. I always found it curious. And just as many use it to play roulette successfully, there are those who use it for betting.
The Fibonacci number sequence
Leonardo of Pisa, better known as Fibonacci, was an Italian mathematician who, among many other things, promoted the numerical system we all use today, the Indo-Arabic, thus replacing the traditional Roman numeration. He was also the first European to describe the number sequence that today bears his name. The Fibonacci sequence is a sequence of natural numbers that can be extended to infinity.
The definition of the Fibonacci sequence is that, starting with 0 and 1, from these, each term is the sum of the two preceding terms.
Thus, we could exemplify the first numbers of the Fibonacci sequence in this way: 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 8, 13, 21, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233… The key is to add the two previous numbers to get the next one. The mathematical formula would be: 0+1 = 1; 1+1 = 2; 1+2 = 3; 2+3 = 5; 5+3 = 8, and so on and so forth. As you can see, it is enormously easy to work out each figure if you learn the rule and memorise it in your head. But how does this apply to sports betting?
The Fibonacci system
This progressive betting system consists of using the Fibonacci sequence to place increasingly larger bets in terms of Stake and ultimately maximise our profits. Progressive betting systems are by no means popular among gamblers, but they are widely used in casinos. However, more than a few professionals claim that with methods such as the Fibonacci betting system you can win much more than you lose.
The key is to always bet on a draw in a football match; if you lose, you should keep betting on the draw until you win.
There are, however, two fundamental rules when using the Fibonacci betting system if you want to be successful:
- The odds of the draw in the match on which you are betting must be greater than 2.61
- Increase the amount we play (the Stake) following exactly the Fibonacci sequence.
If we look at the odds for the draw in a usual round of the English League, we see that in all the matches, the odds for the draw are higher than the mandatory 2.61 that we must have in front of us in order to use the Fibonacci betting strategy. Similarly, in the majority of matches in the major European leagues, this fact is respected, partly because draws are the most difficult results for a bookmaker to predict.
Taking into account, therefore, that over the course of an entire season there will be a high percentage of draw odds that we will be able to use, it is time to see how many draws occur over the course of a league. Taking as a reference the last Liga Santander, we see that out of a total of 380 matches there were 85 draws, which represents 22.36 per cent of the total results. This means, using a simple mathematical formula, that in every four and a half matches there is a draw. Therefore, statistically, we would win one out of every five bets on the draw placed under the Fibonacci betting system.
In other words: if our first bet our Stake is $1 and we lose; the next one is also $1 and we lose again, then we bet $2 and lose again, then we bet $5 and lose, then we bet $8 and win… in total, our initial investment will have been $15, winning at least $20.88 on our first winning bet (if the odds are 2.61), i.e. $5.88 profit.
Advantages and disadvantages of the Fibonacci system
As you can see, this is a method that, in principle, has no ‘trap or trap and cardboard’ as long as we keep these premises. However, the truth is that there are many obstacles that we must put in front of us when thinking about whether we really want to use it in our daily sports betting. It is essential to be aware of many matches in order to be able to choose a sequence of matches that will take place over time, one after the other, on which to bet (in this strategy it is impossible to bet live). And the fact that in all of them, the odds have to be equal or higher than 2.61 makes the effort in terms of preparation and time to use this technique considerable.
On the other hand, no matter how much mathematics we use, in the end, sports betting always has an important component of chance. This means that we can face very long losing streaks in the hope that our next bet will be a winner. When we win, we will make a very high profit, yes… but are we prepared to endure an investment of weeks or months with no return? Is our pocketbook adequate for this strategy? So, we must conclude by explaining that, like any other progressive betting strategy, the Fibonacci system will work as long as our budget is unlimited or, at the very least, not at all adjusted to low margin parameters. So, if you’re not a hardcore bettor, this may not be your best tactic. But if you are well-heeled and are keen to try something new… who knows?